Last Friday (March 14), U.S. economic data showed slight weakness, with the New York Fed manufacturing index significantly below expectations (recording -20.9, with expectations of -7), and the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index also declined compared to previous figures. In terms of the U.S. stock market, its performance was dominated by risk reallocation and delta hedging triggered by the large-scale expiration of options, led by a decline in tech stocks, closing down by 0.5% to -1%. This week will see the FOMC meeting, where it is anticipated that Chairman Powell will respond to the recent inflation figures exceeding expectations and the loose financial situation during the Q&A session. Additionally, monetary policy decisions will be made by dozens of central banks, including those of Japan, the UK, and Australia, with the general expectation that the major central banks will maintain a dovish stance. The Bank of Japan may end its negative interest rate policy at the meeting.

Source: SignalPlus, Economic Calendar
Source: Binance & TradingView, BTC & ETH Trend Comparison

The digital currency market experienced a turbulent weekend, with the price of BTC at one point declining to approach the $65,000 mark before gradually recovering to around $68,000, closing today at $68,196.83 (+4.29%), and ETH at $3,626 (+4.84%). In terms of options, implied volatility fell from its peak as prices rebounded, with an overall level around 75%; the Vol Skew level was low, indicating a steep term structure. In trading, the price fluctuations led traders to repurchase BTC 22 MAR 24–64000-P and 29 MAR 24–70000-P, releasing a large amount of margin from short sellers. On the other hand, as observed from the chart above, the recent trend of ETH is relatively weaker compared to BTC, making the triangular price difference strategy represented by SELL ETH-26 APR 24–4500-C Vs BUY ETH-29 MAR 24–3400-C a hotspot in bulk trading, betting on a short-term regression in correlation.

Source: Deribit (As of 18 MAR 8:00 UTC)
Source: SignalPlus
Source: SignalPlus
Data Source: Deribit, ETH trading distribution
Data Source: Deribit, BTC trading distribution
Source: Deribit Block Trade
Source: Deribit Block Trade

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