Yesterday (June 25), the Bitcoin spot ETF finally halted its outflow of funds, and the uncertainty reflected in the options market has largely subsided. Following the announcement on June 24 by the Mt. Gox trustee to begin repayments in early July, Bitcoin’s price experienced a brief drop due to market panic.

Alex Thorn, the head of Galaxy Research, published an article stating that the number of tokens ultimately allocated to individual creditors in the bankruptcy case is much lower than expected, around 65,000 BTC (far less than the previously reported 140,000 BTC). This means the resulting selling pressure on Bitcoin will be less than anticipated.

This is mainly because some creditors opted for debt acceptance (similar to FTX’s bundled debt sales) and received early payments, which eventually went to large institutions. Additionally, the letter did not mention a specific repayment schedule, but it is unlikely to be short. These Mt. Gox creditors are early digital currency users who are well-versed in technology, suggesting that they are inclined towards long-term Bitcoin holding. Therefore, the daily maximum selling pressure will not be excessive.

Source: Farside Investors;SignalPlus,ATM Vol

Judging by yesterday’s price movement, even though the price rebounded to around 62,000 and the ETF temporarily stopped its outflow, the current negative sentiment and poor liquidity remain unchanged. Consequently, the upcoming macroeconomic events should be closely monitored. These events include:

  • This Friday’s PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures)
  • Fed Chair Powell’s speech next Tuesday
  • Next Friday’s hourly wage and non-farm payroll data

All of these will influence the market’s repricing and fund flows.

Source: SignalPlus Economic Calendar,Important Economic Events in the U.S. This Week
Source: SignalPlus Economic Calendar, Important Economic Events in the U.S. Next Week
Source: Deribit (As of 26 JUN 8:00 UTC)

In terms of trading, after the panic subsided, there are bullish options for BTC with expirations in late June and July, along with a particularly noteworthy large transaction with expiration in late September. This strategy, executed in an almost zero-cost manner, involved selling 190 at-the-money (ATM) calls at 62,000 to obtain 1,140 puts at 48,000, providing protection for long-term positions.

Data Source: Deribit, Overall Distribution of BTC Transactions
Data Source: Deribit, Overall Distribution of ETH Transactions
Source: Deribit Block Trade
Source: Deribit Block Trade

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