Sorry for the delay in posting this week due to my busy schedule. Short briefing :>

My main positions are mostly spot. I interpreted the risk based on $65,000 all month. After BTC collapsed at $65,000, I reduced my exposure to derivatives and bought more spot at the price below.

For now, we plan to continue buying up to $50,000 in preparation for the possibility of a boring summer and further declines.

As I posted on X on June 24th, I am sticking to this plan. On Friday, despite many negative headlines, BTC is defending $60,000. The market appears to be preparing for a rebound in the first week of July. If we continue to defend $60,000, I think we will see a rebound to $63,000 to $65,000. However, negative factors still remain, so tight SL settings are essential!

The headline that caused the sharp decline in the market this week was probably the Mt.gox news. They decided to repay creditors in BTC and BCH starting in July. In a situation where liquidity in the crypto market is low due to the current macro situation, potential supply is increasing… Obviously this is negative news.

The market will likely need time to digest this supply news through July and August. I am not in a hurry and plan to buy the spot slowly.

Along with the above Mt.gox and German government selling issues, this is the most controversial issue in the market. Miners are currently under pressure due to the halving and a capitulation appears to be underway. There is nothing special about this as it is an event that has always occurred during each BTC halving. Additionally, miners appear to be preparing another business toward AI data centers to prepare for lowered profitability due to halving. More details will have to wait until time passes, but I personally interpret this as optimistic.

BTC implied volatility is currently near its lowest level this year. DVOL is 44 and has been in a continuous downward trend since 73k. This shows that people’s expectations about BTC price fluctuations are not high. Will it be a boring summer?

The IV of short-term exp options fell below RV for the first time in a long time. This means that the option price is relatively cheap.

Lastly, I will end the article with a comment I left on the community a few days ago. I’ll be back next week with more stories about macros!

  1. The market right now looks similar to August 2023. Keep in mind, the view can change completely depending on whether the bull market is over or not. I believe it is not over.
  2. Don’t be too hasty until the market structure is fully restored. Until you are confident. Being calm is a much better weapon than any other trading skill. Make a plan and do it.
  3. All my analysis is publicly available. I stick to my plan. Clear risk management levels. I said altcoins can be risky and that we should be conservative below $65,000. I think July could still be a tough month.
  4. I don’t know how long it will take for the market structure to recover. This could be the start of a downtrend. Depending on how one interprets the current situation, the interpretation may vary from person to person. I’m not a god, so I just buy the spot whenever it drops. If I’m right, I make money, if I’m wrong, I lose money. That’s it.


<Source : TradingView, VeloData, Ambardata>

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