Yesterday (June 18), the U.S. May retail sales monthly rate, dubbed “terror data” by the market, recorded a lower-than-expected 0.1%, while the previous value was revised down from 0% to -0.2%. After the data release, U.S. Treasury yields slightly declined, giving back the gains from the previous day, and the three major stock indexes closed with modest gains. On the other hand, several Federal Reserve officials delivered speeches, all expressing a conservative view that it would take “a few more months” or “several quarters” before seeing data supporting a rate cut.

Source: SignalPlus, Economic Calendar

In the digital currency space, the market’s focus over the past day has been on Ethereum. First and foremost, it is worth mentioning that the SEC has concluded its investigation into the Ethereum 2.0 blockchain ecosystem. Consensys, a key developer of Ethereum, tweeted: “The SEC’s enforcement division has notified us that it will end its investigation into Ethereum 2.0. This means the SEC will not charge Ethereum’s sales as securities transactions.” This was seen by the market as a significant positive, driving a rebound in the price of Ether, which rose more than 3% intraday.

Additionally, Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart noted that an Ethereum spot ETF could be launched by July 4, attracting traders’ bets once again. It is also noteworthy that crypto analyst Lark Davis pointed out that Glassnode data shows ETH exchange balances have reached an 8-year low, with only 10% of ETH circulating on exchanges. He also mentioned that if an Ethereum spot ETF begins trading in the next two weeks, a large influx of institutional funds will enter the market, leading to a significant supply shock.

Source: TradingView, Comparison of ETH and BTC Price Trends

In the options market, influenced by macro news, the ETH options implied volatility curve has flattened and risen, reaching around 65% overall. Large bullish options trades are active, notably with the purchase of a total of 30,500 contracts for the long-term 27 SEP 24–4000-C, and a single purchase of 7,000 contracts for the 28 JUN 24–4000-C. Weekly call options are also popular among retail investors, buoyed by the price increase, pushing the overall smile curve towards call options.

Source: Deribit (As of 19 JUN 8:00 UTC)
Source: SignalPlus, ETH IV Levels Significantly Increased
Source: SignalPlus, ETH Vol Skew Tilted Towards Call Options
Data Source: Deribit, Overall Distribution of ETH Transactions
Data Source: Deribit, Overall Distribution of BTC Transactions
Source: Deribit Block Trade
Source: Deribit Block Trade

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