There isn’t much difference from last week. Stay bullish above $65,000.

The market continued to be completely unresponsive to the good news. The overall decline continues. In particular, there was a serious decline in altcoins this week. Currently, people appear to be in a state of extreme depression. The same goes for the Korean market. I don’t think I’ve ever seen this level of depression since last year.

Short positions are heavily stacked and BTC still appears willing to defend the yellow box ($64,000-$65,000). Also, that level is STHRP (Short Term Holder Realized Price). It usually acts as support in a bull market. If that level breaks down, short-term holders can sell their BTC.

I think it’s more likely that the market will rebound if nothing special happens. The key is $67,000.

The SEC has notified Consensys that it is ending its investigation into ETH 2.0. ETH will likely no longer be sued over securities issues. This is clearly positive news for ETH. Don’t have complicated thoughts.

The options market responded. Large-scale bet that has been difficult to see recently. Pay $12M premium for September 4000 call options. It looks like someone has increased their ETH exposure. ETH ETF S-1 is likely to be approved within next week. My hunch is that BTC will likely hold on to the $64,000-$65,000 support level to support the ETH ETF issue.

It will be interesting to see whether the ETH ETF issue can have a positive impact on the overall market. It wouldn’t be good if the market fell despite this optimistic news.

Realized volatility for BTC and ETH continues to decline, with BTC in particular near historical lows. This isn’t to say there’s going to be a big move right now, but… It also means that you can seize opportunities.

Trump said this.

“I will end Joe Biden’s war on crypto. We will ensure that the future of crypto and the future of Bitcoin will be made in America, otherwise, other countries are going to have it.”

Crypto continues to play a key role in elections. To me, there seems to be no reason to be extremely bearish on BTC. It will take a lot of time for institutions to actually enter the BTC ETF with clear conviction. Probably after Q4 or 2025. I believe this US presidential election will be a catalyst for more capital to flow into the crypto market.

There was also an article saying that stablecoins would solve the US debt problem and solidify the position of the dollar… I don’t think all of this is reflected in the price yet.

UK CPI achieved 2%. Service is still sticky but looks set to turn downward soon. Disinflation is clearly underway around the world. It’s not good news that the American consumer is weakening, but… The labor market is easing and current macro indicators suggest that disinflation will continue.

I don’t know when the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates, but an environment in which interest rates can be lowered is being created.


<Source : TradingView, Material indicators, Amberdata, LookInToBitcoin,>

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