Yesterday (15 FEB), the US retail sales for January recorded a month-on-month rate of -0.8%, lower than the expected -0.1%. Following the data release, the 10-year US Treasury bond yield briefly fell below 4.2%, but later rebounded to 4.267%. The 2-year yield, which is more sensitive to interest rate policies, rose back above 4.6% to 4.607%. The Nasdaq/S&P/Dow Jones indexes closed up by 0.3%/0.58%/0.91% respectively. Although earlier, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans calmed the market sentiment after the January CPI figure came in well above expectations, according to reports from Xinhua Finance, yesterday, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic stated in a speech that due to the strong US labor market and economy, the Fed may not be in a hurry to cut interest rates. He warned that it is still unclear whether inflation will move towards the Fed’s 2% target. His expectation is that the inflation rate will continue to decline but at a slower pace than what the market suggests.
Source: SignalPlus, Economic Calendar
Source: Binance & Tradingview
In the cryptocurrency market, the bullish sentiment towards BTC quickly waned as it approached the $52,000 mark, leading to a slight fluctuation in prices over the past 24 hours (-0.08%). This caused the implied volatility curve for options, including ETH, to steepen, with the front end dropping by around 1.5–2.5% Vol. Trading distribution shows a game between 52,000 vs 48,000 Put Spread for 23 FEB, with slightly more selling pressure prevailing. Meanwhile, there is still significant buying interest in bullish strategies, such as the 29 MAR 24 65,000 vs 75,000 Call Spread (720 BTC per leg). On the other hand, the upward momentum for ETH continues, with a daily close at $2819.22 (+1.53%). There has been a significant amount of stop-loss orders for in-the-money call options around 23 FEB 2300/2500 and 1 MAR 2650 as the uptrend persists.
Source: Deribit （截至 19 FEB 16: 00 UTC+ 8）
Source: SignalPlus
Source: SignalPlus
Data Source: Deribit
Data Source: Deribit
Source: Deribit Block Trade
Source: Deribit Block Trade
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