Last Friday (Jan 12), the US PPI unexpectedly softened, triggering a short-term dive in US Treasury yields. The two-year yield fell below 4.2% and then fluctuated slightly at a low level, currently at 4.146%. The ten-year yield once dropped to around 3.93% but has gradually regained ground over the past few days, currently at 3.974%. The performance of the three major US stock indices was mixed, with the Dow Jones falling 0.31%, while the S&P and Nasdaq closed nearly flat (+0.08%/+0.017%).

Source: SignalPlus, Economic Calendar

In the cryptocurrency sector, BTC prices fell by about 8% between the 12th and 13th, at one point dipping below the $42,000 mark, and are now fluctuating below $43,000. Analysis indicates that following the approval of ETFs, GBTC’s trading volume, exceeding half of the total, ranks at the top. It is observed that GrayScale’s discount, which once reached 50% after successfully converting from a trust to an ETF, is gradually vanishing. Additionally, its high management fee of 1.5% gives reason to believe that holders may be inclined to sell or convert to other ETFs. However, data from Arkham shows that current holdings of Grayscale BTC stand at $26.6 billion, with recent outflows of about $1.67 billion. This suggests that Grayscale may not be selling large amounts of BTC in response to continuous selling of GBTC by clients. Although it is also pointed out that Arkham’s statistics may not be comprehensive, as cryptocurrency KOL Neuner said, “$25 billion is a significant number, and even if only 20% is redeemed, that would mean $5 billion in trading volume on the market,” indicating that Bitcoin “might face a period of selling pressure.”

In terms of options, with the arrival of the working week, the front end of the implied volatility curve saw a significant increase. BTC’s IV has been mostly between 55% to 60% over the past two weeks, while the ETH curve is relatively steeper, with the medium to long term still carrying a higher premium than BTC. Vol Skew remains at a lower position than in the past three months.

Trading has been relatively calm, with mid to long-term 50,000-C in BTC still a buying hotspot. As of now, this strike price has accumulated an OI of 23,110 BTC, far exceeding other levels.

Source: Bloomberg, ETF Management Fee Comparison
Source: Arkham,Grayscale Holdings Changes
Source: Binance & TradingView
Source: Deribit (As of 15JAN 08:00 UTC)
Source: SignalPlus
Source: SignalPlus
Source: Laevitas
Source: Deribit Block Trade
​Source: Deribit Block Trade

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