Following Chairman Powell’s speech, yesterday (April 2nd), the Federal Reserve’s Daly and Mester also tried to retract any expectations of imminent rate cuts. Daly mentioned that the market’s widely expected three rate cuts are the baseline but cannot be guaranteed. At the same time, he indicated that the continuous rise in oil prices would become a problem. The yield on the ten-year U.S. Treasury briefly exceeded 4.4% before falling back to 4.365%, while the two-year yield continued to fluctuate above 4.7%. The three major U.S. stock indices all closed down around -1% due to the risk aversion triggered by this, among which was also dragged down by Tesla’s significant drop (-4.9%) due to poor first-quarter earnings.

Source: SignalPlus, Economic Calendar; This week, the U.S. non-farm employment index and hourly wages data will be released.
Source: SignalPlus & TradingView

In the realm of digital currencies, the BTC price saw a slight rebound around $65,000, with option volatility sliding sideways, and a warming in risk sentiment. Over the past day, there was a significant sell-off of bearish options at the $64,000 and $60,000 levels for BTC. Meanwhile, towards the end of April, there has been a resurgence of bullish option positions with strike prices above $70,000. In terms of ETH, the sale of bearish price differences between 2600 vs 3100 in 8500 sets for April 26, 2024, became a focal point in the market, with a similarly large volume of bullish strategies executed.

Source: Deribit (As of 3 APR 8:00 UTC)
Source: SignalPlus, ATM Vol
Source: SignalPlus, Vol Skew
Data Source: Deribit, ETH trading distribution
Data Source: Deribit, BTC trading distribution
Source: Deribit Block Trade
Source: Deribit Block Trade

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