Market
BTC is still at the $70,000 level. Honestly, it’s amazing to be at this level even in the current macro environment. I am still evaluating this whole situation positively. Focus on facts rather than speculation.
Although there is still a lot of time left in April, it is true that the possibility of BTC reaching $80,000 in April is gradually decreasing. The target remains the same, but if there is more sideways movement in April, BTC looks likely to hit $80,000 in May. The number of entities continuing to accumulate BTC is increasing. Currently, I don’t think the market will move sideways overall in Q2. Also, I’m still not thinking about BTC $48,000 and $52,000 at all. If presidential election seasonality is correct, I would be wrong.
The reason why prices do not collapse easily is simple. The halving is approaching and BTC is clearly a great hedge against currency depreciation. More and more people are realizing this value. It will take a lot of spot selling for BTC to reach $50,000. That’s not to say it won’t happen 100%, but it still seems unlikely. Additionally, I’m curious on what basis people think BTC will reach $50,000.
The process of sideways movements may be tedious, but it is good to think that there will be more upward movements in the future.
There was a change in the order book this week. Most entities are still buying and BTC has withstood a month of selling by miners and sellers. And buy orders at the $60,000 level moved to the $67,000 level. If prices fall, that $67,000 seems important. Sell orders at the $70,000 level still exist and more buying pressure is needed for BTC to move higher.
When looking only at USDT.D, it appears that convergence is almost complete. However, USDT.D does not follow BTC movements 100% because it also includes altcoins. If BTC shows more sideways movements in the current price range and altcoins maintain their weak trend as they are now, I think there is a possibility that USDT.D will move a little differently from BTC. There could be some movement soon.
This CPI announcement was higher than expected and had a negative impact on the market. As I said, CPI has continued to fall over the past year and is no longer able to fall sharply at the 2-3% level. The market environment after 2020 is very different from before.
Although the disinflation trend is clearly weakening, Shelter and Car Insurance, which make up the majority of the core, have driven most of this core CPI increase. Among CPI items, the proportion accounting for less than 2% has been steadily declining since this year, and the proportion accounting for more than 4% continues to rise. Clearly, not all factors are causing the CPI to rise. If the current trend continues and there is a further CPI rise, it will definitely be a problem, but considering seasonal factors, etc., it does not seem 100% negative at the moment.
(It is true that you need to be careful if inflation volatility increases!)
Thanks To Warren.
The dollar is rising like crazy. The impact of CPI was more significant than anything else. Bond yield movements on the CPI announcement date were also very serious. Typically it does not fluctuate by 3% per day. We could see how the CPI announcement took the market by surprise. But what surprised me more was BTC’s quick recovery. Although there was a large-scale short liquidation, it is very surprising that the price continues to maintain even in the current macro environment. The currency values of certain countries, such as USDKRW, are falling at a very rapid rate. In particular, Korea is in a very serious situation. To be honest, the charts are scary too.
All of these situations make me believe that I should hold BTC.
ETF Flow
There was nothing special about ETF inflows. ETF inflows have also slowed due to continued sideways movements. What is special is that there was no ETF outflow even in this macro environment. I don’t think there will be no leaks in the future, but looking at the current facts, it’s positive.
Also positive news! News that Hong Kong will approve BTC and ETH ETFs on Monday. ETF approval may not lead to an immediate upside, but it still has a positive long-term impact. After US approval, the world is starting to pay more and more attention to BTC.
Once again, you don’t have to worry about GBTC leaks at all. There is no effect on the market.
Commodity
Gold and silver continue to rise, supporting my “everything goes higher” idea. Prices of most other commodities except gold and silver are also rising. I’m not an economist, so I could be wrong, but I don’t at all think that the current events mean that the world is on the verge of destruction.
I continue to believe in the “digital goods” theory. Larry must have known that the “monetization of debt” would become more severe at a faster rate. There is still no consensus among market participants that BTC is a “digital commodity,” but I believe that will happen soon.
Options Market
Change is finally occurring in the options market. IV, which was unchanged at level 70, is dropping significantly today. Continuing from my last post, if BTC doesn’t reach $80,000 quickly, options traders may want to sell volatility during these boring moves. Currently, option selling is gradually increasing in the options market. Reduced market expectations.
NFA DYOR 🙂
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