Market
1. After Chairman Powell’s strong dove remarks at the FOMC, BTC rose and fell repeatedly, then slowly recovered over the weekend and regained the $70,000 level. This is a very important level and as shown in the chart, BTC is likely to show accumulation at this level once again for a few days. It feels closer to $80,000.
I believe BTC will rise further, but I don’t think it will go as easily as I thought. Sell orders for BTC up to $75,000 on Binance and Coinbase exchanges are higher than expected. This is a situation where strong buying is needed. Which whale moves?
Several possibilities are currently being discussed in CT. A scenario of rising and then falling before the halving, a sideways scenario for April, a further falling scenario, etc. Since this is a difficult market situation for everyone, any possibility can occur, so confirmation seems more important than certainty.
Personally, I consider the daily close here to be important. I plan to think positively if this level is defended and several good daily closing candles are formed. If the market shows further declines, I will not hesitate to buy. It’s best to think of it as a shopping opportunity.
I would like to say once again that no matter what happens, I remain optimistic.
2. In last week’s analysis, I said that from an order book perspective, BTC appears to be close to the bottom. To break the $60,000 level strongly, it would not have been easy for the sell side as they would have had to sell a lot of spot BTC. Currently, buy orders still exist at the same level as before. As explained in number 1, there are quite a few sell orders, so we need strong buys to push the price higher.
3. USDT.D continues to decline after rising to the indicated level. I am not sure what will happen, but I think that if BTC continues to rise, USDT.D will fall to the 3.2% level. I also refer to the start and end of big waves in market movement through the USDT.D chart. I think it would be helpful to refer to the levels displayed on the chart when the market rises and falls.
4. Last week, DXY started to rise after the FOMC, but stopped rising at 104.5 and is moving sideways. This is the level I mentioned last week. A clear reversal from this level would be a positive sign for risk assets, but there is a PCE release this week and an upcoming CPI release in April. The upcoming CPI announcement in April is likely to continue the current price rise trend, albeit slightly. Since BTC has moved largely unrelated to DXY in recent months, will it be able to continue its independent movement this time as well?
DXY has clearly broken the trend line, so there may be a further rise, but we need to watch a little more on the weekly basis. It may be a re-evaluation of each country’s currency value, but honestly, I don’t know exactly why DXY is rising.
5. I constantly mentioned GOLD in the communities where most active. My interpretation is that a new upward cycle has begun. Personally, I think that most assets and products, including GOLD, will continue to show good movements. GOLD is still showing a pretty good trend. It is expected that a structure will be created that will allow prices to continue to rise.
6. Institutional buyers will be announced via SEC 13F starting next week. It is expected that we will be able to find out which institutions purchased BTC. Of course, they may not have purchased BTC, but I definitely think they have. There may not be an immediate announcement, but we need to keep an eye on it.
ETF Flow
After a continued decline in inflows last week, ETF inflows this week turned positive again. I watched to see if outflows occurred from other ETFs except GBTC, but there were no such incidents. ETF buyers do not seem to have much intention of selling BTC at the current price. If supply is low and demand remains strong, prices rise. Keep it simple.
GBTC outflows have little impact on the market. Don’t pay too much attention to GBTC leaks. If this positive trend continues, the BTC flowing out of GBTC will likely be perfectly converted to other ETFs. Additionally, ETFs are now firmly established as a psychological factor for traders. The market reaction so far after the announcement of ETF flows is definitely like that.
Options Market
Vol remains at a high level. Nothing much has changed in a few weeks. People are still actively trading options and seem to be more inclined to do so ahead of the halving event.
Currently, the options market is negative for ETH and bullish for BTC. There was ETH put spread trading this morning and BTC is still showing demand for long expiration calls. I also think the ETHE premium indicates that people’s expectations of ETF approval have decreased. ETH/BTC is also hitting new lows every day. It would likely take some optimistic news about ETFs for this sentiment to change.
I’m continuing to look at options for April with the halving event. It would be nice if it was 60 Vol, but 70 Vol also looks good. This BTC cycle is likely to be different from normal cycles due to the influence of ETFs, so this halving event has the potential to be interesting.
This Friday is the expiration date for quarterly options. Approximately 40% of all open interest expires. It will pass without much impact, just like any other time. Don’t worry too much. See you in April when the new positioning begins.
Have a great week everyone!
NFA DYOR 🙂
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