Market
Happy Lunar New Year!
Continuous 42.5k level defense. We ended up getting higher. I said in my last analysis that if a move happens it will be very fast and BTC has risen to the 50k level which is higher than my expectations! Please refer to the levels shown in the chart. Around 50k, my most important ranges are 45k and 48k. My current thoughts on BTC are that it will move sideways for a few days at the current level and then rise again to the 52-53k level.
If BTC holds the important level again, we are very likely to move higher. As I mentioned in X, unless major problems occur in the world, the trend is upward. What you need to do now is create a good picture of the big picture and overcome the emotions that arise from watching the news and articles that create fear. Whether BTC corrects or moves sideways, my opinion remains that it will eventually go higher.
However, as BTC rises, it feels like the correction zone is getting closer. When that time comes, I’ll share it with you!
ETF Flow
ETF flows can be evaluated as very good. GBTC outflows have decreased but are continuing. However, inflows from the remaining ETFs more than offset GBTC outflows. In particular, IBIT and FBTC are still showing high inflows. Look at the numbers and facts.
In particular, IBIT (BlackRock) achieves $5B inflow within 5 weeks of ETF launch… I can say that it is truly amazing and historic. As of now, the BTC ETF has clearly been a success. I completely feel the demand for BTC from people just like last week. It is very positive if this trend continues in the future.
Options Market
IV is about 10 points higher than last week. As expected last week, volatility, which was extremely low, responded nicely. As BTC spot showed a sharp rise to around 50k, people traded a lot of call options. Volatility is our friend, it’s been a really fun week.
Both BTC and ETH showed strong demand for calls. You can clearly see that the market is more biased toward calls than last week. Large trades at high strike prices were also confirmed. Often, this strong demand on one side is related to market overheating, but I do not see it as a sign of market overheating, but rather a clear upward demand for BTC.
BTC GEX (Gamma Exposure) is similar to what we are seeing in the spot market. It shows that the 50k level is also an important level in the options market. Interest level of most traders. There was a lot of demand for the 50k strike price from many call option buyers.
Macro
I think yesterday’s CPI had little impact to change the ongoing upward trend. Disinflation is well underway and it currently appears unlikely that inflation will rise sharply again and put significant pressure on the economy. The key point here is that disinflation is well underway.
There isn’t much to explain. I had absolutely no fear about the inflation data. I am optimistic about the current and future markets.
2024 Strategy
Rate Cut
NFA DYOR 🙂
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