Yesterday (April 22), the U.S. stock market saw a slight rebound in risk sentiment, ending a six-day losing streak for the S&P 500, giving the market a breather ahead of Friday’s PCE Index, a busy earnings week, and the upcoming FOMC meeting. On the other hand, recent poor inflation data has delayed market expectations for the Federal Reserve to shift to a looser policy. U.S. Treasury yields continue to fluctuate at high levels, forcing global investors to reconsider their expectations for a global easing cycle. Some investors are beginning to doubt the determination of the European Central Bank to cut interest rates. The currency market no longer fully incorporates expectations that the ECB will cut rates three times by December. Morgan Stanley analysts pointed out in a report, “Inflation triggered by exchange rates gives us reason to worry about the ECB’s rate-cutting actions, which are more aggressive than previously anticipated.”

Source: TradingView, SP 500

The gold premium brought by geopolitical conflicts is gradually fading from the market, with spot gold recording its largest single-day decline in two years and continuing to fall today.

Source: TradingView, XAUUSD

In the realm of digital currencies, ETFs have maintained positive inflows, with FBTC’s inflows surpassing those of the major player IBTC for three consecutive days, and outflows from GBTC also decreasing. Additionally, according to the on-chain data analytics firm Artemix, net inflows into stablecoins have persisted for 15 out of 16 weeks so far in 2024, with last week’s net inflow reaching $3.4 billion, the third highest level in 2024.

Source: Farside Investors;Twitter

In the past day, the BTC price rallied from $66,000 to $67,000 before experiencing a pullback to near $66,000. In terms of options, implied volatility has noticeably steepened downwards. There were transactions of Iron Condor strategies in BTC options with opposing directions, buying Vol at the end of April and selling Vol at the end of May. Additionally, a large number of bullish options for BTC expiring at the end of June were heavily sold, influenced by two triangular arbitrage trades on the bulk platform, involving selling 28 JUN 75000 & 80000 Calls while buying 27 DEC 80000-C and 27 SEP 90000-C, possibly due to uncertainties surrounding the U.S. election.

On the ETH front, trades were relatively concentrated. Large accounts bought a massive amount of 3100 Puts at the end of April as protection for the upcoming monthly settlement, while retail traders took advantage of the still-declining implied volatility to sell OTM Puts on May 3 and May 31, earning premiums.

Source: Deribit (As of 23 A PR 8:00 UTC)
Source: SignalPlus
Data Source: Deribit,ETH trading distribution
Data Source: Deribit, BTC trading distribution, a large number of Calls expiring at the end of June were sold off.
Source: Deribit Block Trade
Source: Deribit Block Trade

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