The bond market continues its issuance boom, with Eurobond supply reaching an all-time high. The U.S. three-year Treasury auction also went smoothly, with the yield-to-maturity decreasing by one basis point compared to before the auction. Overall, yields continued to fall, with the ten-year yield briefly dipping and touching the 4% threshold again, now reported at 4.001%, and the two-year yield fluctuating downwards, standing at 4.348%. The three major U.S. stock indices showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones and S&P closing down by 0.42% and 0.15% respectively, while the NASDAQ slightly rose by 0.094%.

Source: SignalPlus, Economic Calendar
Source: Binance & TradingView

Cryptocurrency trading was active, with BTC prices experiencing a short-term, wide fluctuation of nearly 8% towards the end of the New York trading session (9 Jan 24, 20:00 UTC). Within an hour, the total amount of liquidations across the network exceeded $40 million. Analysts point out that the main trigger for this volatility was the SEC posting on its official Twitter account that a Bitcoin ETF had been approved, but then quickly deleting the post and clarifying that it was the work of hackers. After the brief turmoil, the market was left with many speculations. Regardless, today (10 Jan) is the deadline for the SEC to respond to the Ark 21 application, and the market awaits the SEC’s decision.

In terms of options, the Doomsday Implied Volatility quickly escalated before the decision day, breaking through the 100% Vol threshold, intensifying the inversion of the curve. Observing from the Vol Skew, BTC and ETH once again showed opposite trends. The 25 dRR of BTC overall significantly decreased. From the overall market trading, we observed an increase in the buying of 43000 to 39000 Puts on the options chain. On the Call side, even though the buying enthusiasm near the ATM and at the 50000 level remained high, there were more Call selling trades on the Wing for BTC relative to ETH, suggesting possible hedging operations in a high IV environment, or as the selling leg in bullish (ratio) spread transactions.

Source: Deribit (As of 10 JAN 08:00 UTC)
Source: SignalPlus
Source: SignalPlus
Source: Deribit Block Trade
Source: Deribit Block Trade

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