Yesterday’s JOLTs were hotter than expected, but Powell’s comments were nothing special. The most important events this week are NFP and unemployment rate. Wednesday’s ADP sometimes acts as a preview of NFP, but recently it has been showing the exact opposite, so people will likely wait for Friday’s NFP.

The stock market continued to rise despite endless attacks from macro doomers. Clearly, growth is slowing… However, in this macro environment of continued disinflation and slow but growing growth, I continue to be bullish on risk assets.

Yesterday’s Tesla delivery gave me a lot to think about… Cars are durable goods that are sensitive to interest rates. Delivery exceeded expectations without an interest rate cut. Currently, it is unlikely that interest rates will be raised further, so I believe the upside potential for 2Y is also low… I still think there is no recession in 2024. (Base Case)

If NFP is hotter than expected on Friday, risk assets will all move weaker.

As you can see from the chart, DXY and 10Y feel like they are in a very important situation… I will be watching for any movement at the NFP event on Friday.

Yesterday’s ES movement was exactly as I expected, but BTC was disappointing. This week isn’t over yet… However, the crypto market rebound is weaker than expected and the bearish movement is strong… It feels like BTC has completely lost people’s attention… Although the stock market continues to be strong in the current decent liquidity environment, it is true that BTC is showing unstable movements. Most of the miners seem to have surrendered, but what remains is Gox and potential supply from the German government. Because there is so much potential supply, it feels like there is no active buying either.

BTC may temporarily break $60,000, but I think it will be okay if it recovers on a weekly candle basis. The feeling of August 2023. 200DMA is $58,000 and if BTC fails to protect the support level, there is a possibility of a decline down to $50,000. The best situation for the Bulls is to recover $65,000-$66,000 in the yellow box. Once that level is recovered I would think BTC is headed towards a new ATH.

To be honest, we have to hope BTC doesn’t lose 200DMA. A very important time. The market may move strongly in either direction, so manage your risk.

IV has hit a new low this year. Since the market movement is not large, it appears that people continue to sell options. ETH’s VRP is still high and its IV has been falling since this week… It seems like people have no expectations at all at the ETF event, where approval is expected next week. (Will it break everyone’s expectations and show a completely different movement?)

There is still bullish positioning in the BTC options market for the long term. Most products are from December and March 2025. Yesterday there was a bearish bet with the combination [$55,000P + $65,000C]. What I feel while looking at the options market is the same as before… There doesn’t seem to be much certainty about direction.


<Source : TradingView, Ambardata,>

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