Market
Unlike a few days ago, the current market situation does not look very good overall. ETF inflows are slowing and TradFi has also shown some bearish movement. Only NVDA rose and most markets fell. CBP is -$10 to $20 and it is clear that buying power is waning.
If BTC is unable to maintain the yellow box level of $65,000, a further long sideways trend seems likely. Despite some optimistic news, the market is falling. Most movements will likely follow the TradFi market. (Crypto markets have a high correlation with TradFi unless there are special issues)
If it maintains $65,000 and shows stable movement, I would not rule out the possibility of renewing the ATH. This is a period when weekly/daily deadlines are important. I think it will become clearer in next week’s movements.
ETH ETF & FIT21
Big Week!
This week has been a big week for the crypto market. First, the FIT21 bill passed the House of Representatives and the ETH ETF was approved. To be precise, it is 19b-4 approval and S-1 is left. However, it appears that it will actually be approved. Actual ETF trading is expected after July. In fact, it is difficult to say that it is a 100% win because the part about staking is missing… Based on the current SEC stance, it seems clear that ETH without staking is not a security.
No one expected the ETH ETF to be approved this week. This approval is a clear political change. Yes, crypto will definitely play a big role in the 2024 US elections. We expect there to be more political intervention in the future. Regardless of the consequences, the winds of change are very positive.
It doesn’t end with approval. What matters from now on is how much capital inflow the ETH ETF will see. Some people compare it to the ETH futures ETF, but the timing is inherently different. The current market is in a more optimistic situation than when the futures ETF was approved, and people’s perspectives on the crypto market are changing through the efforts of many people and institutions. I expect the inflow to be lower than the BTC ETF, but I definitely expect to see more inflow than the futures ETH ETF. (If ETF inflows are very low it may not be optimistic in the short term)
The final hurdle remaining is the approval of the BTC ETF option. If the ETF option is approved, we expect more institutional traders to participate in the market.
Vol
Like the BTC ETF, the ETH ETF also showed a huge increase in Vol. Vol for 5/24 options rose to 180. An explosive move against Yvette that no one expected. However, consistent with the other events, the Vol fell sharply with a 19b-4 approval. Don’t panic, this is a normal move.
Currently, when comparing the Vol difference between BTC and ETH, BTC Vol looks relatively attractive.
DXY & Yield
DXY is rising and Yield has reverted all its previous CPI declines. PMI also showed a solid performance, influencing the rise in yield. 2Y is currently below 5%, but if it rises above 5% again, it will be negative for risk assets. Currently, expectations for an interest rate cut remain in the market as a whole. If DXY rises above 105.5, it is expected to be generally bad for the risk asset market. My basic view is that DXY will fall again from the 105-106 level, so I am checking the current movement carefully.
Clearly, things are not “very” optimistic right now.
NVDA
$NVDA CFO: “While supply for H100 improved, we are still constrained on H200. At the same time, Blackwell is in full production. We are working to bring up our system and cloud partners for global availability later this year. Demand for H200 & Blackwell is well ahead of supply, and we expect demand may exceed supply well into next year”
- The Transcript
NVDA’s earnings were as good as expected. It shows earnings that have exceeded Wall Street expectations over the past year. 3rd place in market capitalization. It’s really amazing. The demand for AI is proving to be very large indeed. Most companies are increasing CapEx. Demand for chips continues to grow, and more companies are entering the chip war. Additionally, due to the rapid demand for AI, electricity demand is also increasing explosively, and related stocks are also benefiting.
Personally, I tend to trust the words of people who actually run in the field more than macro analysts. I think that part gave me confidence in this NVDA earnings forecast.
As for the stock price, honestly, it has already shown enough rise. Since the entire market is currently falling, I don’t know what will happen to NVDA’s stock price in the future… It’s clear that if NVDA were to fall, with the overall market being affected, the impact would be significant.
NFA DYOR 🙂
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