BTC rose to $73,800 this week, hitting the white box. In a rising market, no matter what you buy, it goes up, so everyone starts to become a god. In fact, from now on, the meaning of analysis begins to gradually decrease. Still, I will do my job haha.

I share a few thoughts because I believe BTC has reached an important level.

1. BTC is expected to rise again to $74,000~$75,000. In other words, I think we will make one more high point. When that level is reached, a temporary plunge is likely to occur, and if the important level is maintained, the upward trend will continue. Otherwise, there is a possibility of further decline. (Even if BTC does not reach $74,000, this is a very important level, so I would not be surprised at any outcome)

2. BTC continues to make new highs, but the range of new highs is becoming less and less frequent. However, since the actual buying trend has not completely weakened, it is too early to call it top. That’s why I think it’s an important level. In order for BTC to continue to rise further, either a period adjustment through sideways movement or an additional strong rise is needed.

3. Since BTC has continued to rise without falling in price, PA will not be clean even if it renews its high point. For BTC, I see first of all the possibility of continuing the upward trend even with an unclean PA. $80,000 is the main target if it rises. If a price adjustment occurs, it could fall as high as $58,000 to $59,000. (Know that it is very difficult to time a decline in an uptrend)

4. It seems likely that the rise of some alts with good trends will continue unless BTC plummets. In particular, despite their high market capitalization this week, the rise of L1s such as SOL, AVAX, NEAR, and FTM was noticeable.

5. SOL has a strong upward trend and looks very good. I’ve been talking about SOL for a long time, and aside from the occasional server downs, I think it’s the best chain, both technically and usability-wise. In particular, it is likely to be the best performer in this cycle. Because the gas fee is low and the speed is fast, I think it is likely to be loved by retail traders and institutions will also like it. The BTC pair is also continuing the trend.

6. USDT dominance is likely to move sideways at or near the 3.7% level. Let’s keep an eye on that level.

7. DXY continues its downward trend. Although there will be a rebound during the decline, we expect that the downward trend will ultimately continue and reach the level shown in the chart. Treasury yields have been rising since March 8, and if the rise continues, it is not good for risky assets.

8. When a trend continues, it is important not to be easily swayed by news, FUD, etc. If you have thought and pondered a lot, you should trust your own analysis. It is an important question whether holding is possible or not.

9. Even in a bull market, 20-30% declines are very common, so I think being well prepared for such situations is the way to enjoy a bull market. Excessive leverage trading always causes anxiety. Even in a rising market, many people go bankrupt. Be careful not to lose everything in one transaction.

ETH/BTC was expected to continue its good trend, but investor sentiment appears to have changed as the ETH ETF’s approval probability dropped in May. But please don’t worry too much about this. There may be a temporary price drop due to ETF approval rejection or delay, but I think the ETH ETF will be approved ‘someday’. If there is no other special logic and the logic is the same as for BTC, the SEC has no reason to reject the ETH ETF. However, until final approval, it is still possible that other coins such as SOL may perform better than ETH.

ETF Flow

Still crazy demand. TradFi’s ETF purchases continue. In particular, on Tuesday, the ETF achieved $1B inflow, the highest since its launch. MSTR says it is continuing to buy BTC and will buy more BTC. However, there will inevitably come a time when this demand also decreases. It seems important to capture the trend well.

Although BlackRock is buying, the reason the price does not fluctuate significantly is because BlackRock does not buy in the market, but rather buys BTC through OTC. Among them is GBTC. Fidelity buys ETFs directly in the market. This is why it is important to understand that ETF inflows will not cause BTC prices to rise in a straight line.

Thanks to mignolet

Options Market

This week Vol rose up to 84 points in BTC. As BTC hit new ATHs, people were more and more likely to buy call options, so I said I am not in favor of selling options in this environment. However, as BTC price reached $73,000 and failed to show much upside, Vol fell 10 points and short-expiring options took a hit. IV increases, but there is no significant change in RV, so VRP also appears to be quite high.

In BTC, call options are still more expensive than put options, but ETH has seen some change in short-expiring options. Could this be a result of a decrease in the probability of ETF approval? Demand for put options begins to increase little by little.

When compared to BTC, you can see a clear difference. Vol also shows that BTC is currently higher than ETH. In the options market, expectations for ETH appear to have clearly decreased. The demand for put options increases and the demand for call options decreases. In fact, there is BTC as an alternative to ETH. If expectations for ETH decrease and there is uncertainty, TradFi may purchase BTC instead of ETH. (I like BTC, ETH, SOL all)

Have a great week everyone!


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